Condorcet,s Jury Theorem
المؤلف:
Condorcet, J.-A.-N.
المصدر:
de Caritat, marquis de. "Essai sur l,application de l,analyse à la probabilité des décisions rendues à la pluralité des voix." Paris: Imprimerie Royale, 1785.
الجزء والصفحة:
...
19-10-2021
1484
Condorcet's Jury Theorem
Condorcet's jury theorem states that given a group of voters (a "jury") independently choosing by majority vote between a correct outcome with probability 
and an incorrect one with probability 
:
1. If 
(so that each voter is more likely to vote correctly that incorrectly), adding more voters increases the probability that the majority chooses correctly and the probability of a correct decision approaches 1 as the number of voters increases;
2. If 
(so that each voter is less likely to vote incorrectly than correctly), adding more voters decreases the probability that the majority chooses correctly and the probability of a correct decision is maximized for a jury of size one.
REFERENCES:
Condorcet, J.-A.-N. de Caritat, marquis de. "Essai sur l'application de l'analyse à la probabilité des décisions rendues à la pluralité des voix." Paris: Imprimerie Royale, 1785.
الاكثر قراءة في الرياضيات التطبيقية
اخر الاخبار
اخبار العتبة العباسية المقدسة
